In the late summer of 2022, the College Football Playoff committee voted to introduce a 12-team playoff format, upgrading from the previous four-team mini-tournament.
The idea aimed to allow “smaller” programs to have a shot at the National Championship trophy, an award previously reserved for only the best of the best blue-chip programs. However, this system created a repetitive and unbalanced playoff structure, where Nick Saban’s Alabama team held a monopoly on the college football world.
This season, the fresh arrangement of College Football is finally being introduced, and at the mid-way point of the season, several teams are starting to lock up their spot in the tournament, while others continue to fight for their shot.
While the playoffs are still several weeks away, it’s hard not to fast-forward and begin forecasting the playoff lineup. Many social media users and sports publications have sent out their take on the future of playoff-ready teams. Yet blue-chip, high-power, high-revenue teams seem to dominate the polls and publications, while other talented programs get left in the dust. The sheer chaos in upsets and conference title races amidst notable conference boundary changes has made this extended playoff incredibly difficult to pinpoint. We’ve analyzed every single matchup, statistic and player in order to compile the most accurate playoff prediction possible, the right way.
12- Boise State Broncos (projected 12-1)
Although their hopes for a perfect season were spoiled in a week two matchup with the number one ranked Oregon Ducks, Boise State continues to impress, quite literally running through their Mountain West Conference competition. With Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty menacingly standing in the backfield, Boise State has been nearly unstoppable, even putting up over 220 rushing yards against Oregon’s nationwide top-15 defense. When the Broncos face off with high-level competition, they have not backed down, taking down the number 19 Washington State Cougars in a dominant win.
Although they don’t stand out on a national level due to their weak conference-play competitors, Boise State should surely win out, in which case likely secure their spot in the playoffs.
11- Ole Miss Rebels (Projected 10-2)
After starting the season hot with four consecutive wins, Ole Miss set themselves up to contest for a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the playoff.
Unfortunately, after a devastating loss to Kentucky, they found themselves on the outside looking in, hoping to grab one of the last spots in the playoff ranking. Two weeks later another bullet was fired as Ole Miss suffered another heartbreaking overtime loss to number twenty-one LSU. With two losses early in the season, most media outlets forgot about the Rebels and slotted them as far down as number 19 nationwide.
After a massive week 11 upset victory over former number-one ranked Georgia, the Rebels have revitalized their season. Without star Quarterback Jaxon Dart under center, Ole Miss certainly doesn’t have an easy path to the championship, but the rest of their high-flying offense has the pedigree to make a deep playoff push.
10- Alabama Crimson Tide (projected 10-2)
Alabama’s signature win over the Georgia Bulldogs in week five put the blue-blood program back on top in their first season without legendary head coach Nick Saban. However, the Crimson Tide season has devolved into one far from perfect.
Saban’s departure seemed like a blow Alabama wouldn’t be able to ignore after losing to unranked Vanderbilt, a loss which was eventually followed by yet another defeat to number seven Tennessee. Alabama’s struggle with consistency has been overshadowed by several big-time performances. Georgia and Louisiana State, both ranked teams, saw a Crimson Tide team in their prime and playing their best. Despite tough losses and disappointing performances, Quarterback Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide have the pedigree to roll all the way to a comfortable spot in this season’s playoffs. For Alabama fans and players alike, the question remains either way; can the Crimson Tide still be the overwhelmingly dominant program they once were?
9-Notre Dame Fighting Irish (projected 11-1)
Despite being one of the most Historic teams in college football, with 11 championships, seven Heisman trophy winners and four movies based on their team, Notre Dame hasn’t won the National Championship since 1988. Getting QB Riley Leonard from Duke was huge for 3rd-year head coach Marcus Freeman, who’s struggled to live to full Notre Dame potential.
The Irish defeated Texas A&M in their first game of the season and were in high spirits until the mighty Huskies of Northern Illinois came to town. Notre Dame fell asleep on offense scoring a measly 14 points compared to the Huskies (also measly) 16 points. Since that game, Northern Illinois has gone 2-4, Illustrating the impact of this loss for the Irish. However, the Irish have come out angry and have obliterated 6 teams in a row winning by a combined 188 points. With the flexibility of being able to choose their own schedule, Notre Dame has stacked their matchups which may allow them to recover from the loss. Although they don’t have a conference championship and won’t get an automatic bid, if the Irish can win out they shouldn’t have a problem sneaking into one of the final spots in the playoff.
8- Texas Longhorns (projected 11-2)
Coming off a 12-win season where they won the Big 12 championship and a heartbreaking CFP Semi-Final loss, the Texas Longhorns came out hot in their first season in the SEC. Going 6-0 to start the year with wins over formerly ranked Michigan and Oklahoma, the Longhorns climbed all the way to the number one spot in the AP Poll.
With high confidence, Texas prepared for a week eight home matchup against the number five Georgia Bulldogs. Texas was quickly silenced as they found themselves down at Halftime 23-0. Despite their efforts to come back in the third quarter, they were shut out in the fourth and suffered their first loss of the year 30-15.
The Associated Press dropped them four spots in the polls, leaving the Longhorns at the number five spot. Texas has had an abundance of injuries to deal with so far including Quarterback Quinn Ewers going down for a couple of weeks. The Horns are going to need to find themselves quickly, with two tough games left on their schedule in number 15 Texas A&M and Arkansas, but who better at the helm to turn the ship than head coach Steve Sarkisian
7- Indiana Hoosiers (projected 11-1)
Ranked number 17 in the Sports Illustrated preseason Big Ten power rankings, Head Coach Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers have blown all expectations out of the water.
Straight off an 11-1 season at James Madison University, Cignetti inked with the Hoosiers in November 2023, and completely transformed the program. Predominantly known for its Basketball team, Indiana seeks its first double-digit win football season in program history. Running the best offense in college football, signal caller Kurtis Rourke has picked up the offense remarkably quickly, propelling himself into quiet Heisman conversations. Rourke, a University of Ohio transfer, has helped turn this offense into the best in the country scoring 48.7 ppg. Indiana’s defense has also been one of the strongest in the country, only allowing 13.71 ppg ranking seventh.
Despite dominant statistics, Indiana sits as the number eight team nationwide on the AP Top 25 poll. Thus far, Indiana’s most impressive win remains to be a 56-7 victory over the unranked Nebraska Cornhuskers. If Indiana can pull off an upset week 12 win over number three Ohio State, the conversation for their chances in the Big Ten championship and beyond will be solidified.
State, the conversation for their chances in the Big Ten championship and beyond will be solidified.
6- Penn. State Nittany Lions (projected 11-1)
With arguably the best defense in all of college football, the Penn. State Nittany Lions are off to their best start since 2019. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen form one of the best running back duos in the country, combining for 1,177 yards on the ground. The passing game has been just so-so to start the year ranking number 45 in terms of passing yards. Junior Quarterback Drew Allar suffered a left knee injury in their week nine matchup with Wisconsin. He was a game-time decision for their biggest game of the season against their sworn rival the Ohio State Buckeyes. With their annual loss against the Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State’s hopes of making the big ten champion are pretty much crushed, However it shouldn’t be too hard for them to secure an at-large bid with a solid eleven and one record.
5- Ohio State Buckeyes (projected 11-2)
The Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day might be the only coach in history to go 62-9 with a team yet still sit on the hot seat. Ohio State began their season with what looked like an NFL-caliber roster, rolling against weaker out-of-conference opponents.
Eventually, the Buckeyes were brought back to reality after a devastating defeat to the now-number-one Oregon Ducks. Since that loss, another disappointing performance brought Ohio State down to the wire with Unranked Nebraska. This game further dampened their momentum and added great concern about their top-ranked defense. However, Ohio State’s signature week ten road win in Happy Valley over the number six Penn. State Nittany Lions revitalized the team with a dominating defensive performance.
Day and the Buckeyes’ fate will ultimately come down to their week 13 performance against the number five Indiana Hoosiers. Between last season’s disappointing ending and a string of unfortunate games, Buckeye fans, players, and coaches can’t help but be dissatisfied and frustrated with a team held to an extremely high standard.
4- BYU Cougars (projected 13-0)
Seeking their second undefeated season in school history, the first being in 1984, the BYU Cougars are making a big statement in their second season as part of the Big 12. The Cougars have been outstanding on both sides of the ball ranking top 30 in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense.They also have been exceptional at scoring the ball with a short field, ranking number 13 in red zone scoring percentage. With no ranked games left on their schedule, it shouldn’t be too hard to see BYU finishing the season 13-0 with a Big 12 championship and an automatic bid to the playoff. However, because of their exceptionally easy schedule, look for BYU to be upset early on and go home dissatisfied.
3- Miami Hurricanes (projected 12-1)
Cam Ward came back to college to win and the Hurricanes have done just about that starting the season 9-1. The Senior Quarterback is number one in the country in passing yards and has transformed this Miami offense into the number one scoring offense in all of college football. The biggest red flag regarding the Hurricanes is that they’re schedule has been nothing short of a cake walk, with their toughest opponent being Louisville, who is ranked number 22 in the AP poll.
There’s no doubt that their offense can keep up with a top-25 team, but can their defense? There’s a fair chance that the defense can make strides and keep up with their dominant offense. But It might not matter because Cam Ward and the Canes offense have scored more than 50 points five times this season and could likely win in a shootout against any team in college football.
There are lots of questions regarding this team and how they’ll fare against a worthy opponent and with a bad loss against georgia tech this past week they need to run the table the rest of the way. But because of their overwhelmingly easy schedule the rest of the way, they should find themselves in the ACC championship for an offensive duel with Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers.
2- Tennessee Volunteers (projected 12-1)
The Vols currently sit at 8-1, taking the previous number one team in the nation, Alabama, down to their second loss of the season and pushing them to the number 15 spot. Despite their week six upset loss to unranked Arkansas, Tennessee has proved to be a perennial team in the nation, with a shutdown defense and explosive offensive unit. Tennessee still faces multiple challenges this season, including the number twelve Georgia Bulldogs. Assuming they escape Athens with a victory, this sets up the Vols for a SEC Championship duel with the Texas Longhorns, a game that will determine this number 2 spot.
1- Oregon Ducks (projected 13-0)
After a disappointing 24-14 victory in week one against division II competition in Idaho, Oregon has proved dominant, thus far undefeated despite one of the hardest schedules in the Big Ten conference. Taking down the number 17 Boise State Broncos, number four Ohio State Buckeyes, and number 24 Illinois fighting Illini, Oregon looks to be the favorite to be Big Ten champions, with high hopes to make a run at the National Championship.
Oregon’s offense has rolled, with Heisman trophy candidate Dillon Gabriel putting down 2,665 passing yards so far this season. Defensively, Oregon has improved greatly from the early season, with defensive end Jordan Burch and outside linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei going for a combined 13.5 sacks on the season.
After their electric week six win over the Buckeyes, the Ducks’ championship hopes seem legit, as head coach Dan Lanning continues to lead them, jab after jab, to high-stakes victories. Oregon will still likely face either number three Ohio State or the number eight Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten championship, but have essentially locked a spot in the playoff either way.
